The NHA Handicappers are tasked with ensuring that all horses in handicaps have an equal chance of winning as per the rules of the NHA (Rule: 47.3.2 a handicap, which shall be a RACE in which the weights to be carried by the HORSES are allocated by the handicapper for the purpose of equalising their chances of winning). It is, however, a trend that the three-year-old crop consistently outperform their older rivals in benchmark handicaps. This is likely due to their freshness in racing, their propensity to improve more rapidly than older horses, and the likelihood that trainers take advantage of the favourable WFA for the more mature three-year-old’s early in the season. This trend flattens as the months progress as the Handicappers are able to gain better insight into the merit of each three-year-old, and as the WFA allowance reduces.

 The Handicappers have reviewed the handicap performances of the three-year-old crop after the last Southern Hemisphere season ending 31 July 2022.  This review is done regularly to ensure that a balance between crops is maintained and that handicaps remain competitive. 

The chart below displays the number of starters in benchmark handicaps for the 2021/22 season and is divided into three-year-old starters in yellow and four-year-old and older starters in blue.  Participation by three-year-old’s steadily increases through the course of the season with the smallest number of three-year-old starters during the first quarter of the season.

The chart below shows the three-year-old win strike-rate in Green, and the four year and older crop win strike rate in blue.  The strike rate is calculated by dividing wins for each group by the number of starters of each group and converting to percentages.  But for two months in the 2021/22 season, November and March) the three-year-old crop outperformed their older competitors in every month of the season. As three-year-olds are likely more progressive than their older peers in handicaps, this higher overall strike rate is not abnormal.

The tables below break down the strike rate by month in season, by age group. The average net merit ratings (Ave NMR) columns indicate that the three-year-old’s average net merit rating increases marginally through the course of the season. Despite this, in the months of November 2021 and March 2022 does the four year and older group outperform the three-year-old crop. The dip in strike rate for the three-year-old crop in November and March is likely due to the better three-year-olds contesting the opening November Classic and Highveld March Classic races in those months, and due to the leading Western Cape sophomores likely breaking before the KZN Winter Season. The mostly-consistent outperformance of the three-year-old crop throughout the season is in part due to the constant adjustment of sophomore ratings as they disclose more of their ability through the season in benchmark handicaps.

Snapshot of the last three seasons, i.e. from August 2019 to July 2022.

Current season rating bands as of 1 August 2022 (gross ratings):

Please contact the Senior Handicapper Mr Lennon Maharaj at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. for any queries.